Athletics at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gunnar HoglundPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Dane MyersBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Myers homered to right center (390 feet).6–1
- 5Brown scored on error, Urías safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Edwards.6–0
- 5Brown singled to right, Bleday scored.5–0
- 5Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to center, Soderstrom scored.4–0
- 3Bleday homered to right (347 feet).3–0
- 2Wilson walked, Urías scored, Urshela to second, Kurtz to third.2–0
- 2Kurtz singled to right, Bleday scored, Urías to second, Brown to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 54%
- ML ATH -135 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- ATH: Elo 46.6%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -118
- MIA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.9 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +13 | ATH: Gunnar Hoglund (no track record yet) · MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +24 Elo | MIA 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 8–823rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15162nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301461 | Elo rating | 145527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–14 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–15 | 21–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 2–4 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.
