Athletics at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stowers homered to left center (396 feet), Sanoja scored, Simon scored and Edwards scored.6–9
- 9Simon walked, Mervis scored on Miller wild pitch, Sanoja to third on wild pitch by Miller.6–5
- 8Urshela doubled to center, Wilson scored, Kurtz to third.6–4
- 6Kurtz hit sacrifice fly to center, Bleday scored.5–4
- 5Edwards hit sacrifice fly to center, Sanoja scored.4–4
- 5Sanoja doubled to left, Myers scored.4–3
- 4Urías homered to left (377 feet), Wilson scored.4–2
- 3Stowers homered to center (422 feet), Simon scored.2–2
- 2Bleday homered to right (373 feet).2–0
- 1Rooker homered to center (409 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML ATH +105 / MIA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | ATH: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +1 Elo | MIA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–6 | Road vs home | 8–924th of 30 |
| 28th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15152nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301464 | Elo rating | 145227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–14 | 14–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–4 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.
