Seattle Mariners at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Rowdy TellezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Gunnar HoglundPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moore doubled to center, Taveras scored.6–5
- 8Taveras singled to left, Mastrobuoni scored.5–5
- 6Tellez homered to right center (399 feet), Raleigh scored and Arozarena scored.4–5
- 5Williamson doubled to center, Moore scored.1–5
- 4Wilson doubled to second, Brown scored.0–5
- 4Butler homered to right center (417 feet).0–4
- 1Bleday doubled to right, Andujar scored and Soderstrom scored.0–3
- 1Andujar singled to left, Wilson scored, Soderstrom to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML SEA -135 / ATH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.0 – 4.5 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +10 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gunnar Hoglund: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 6th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 7–1026th of 30 |
| 27th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 146325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–16 | 21–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–11 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 24–8 ATH in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 32.