San Diego Padres at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wells homered to right (375 feet), Judge scored, Bellinger scored and Volpe scored.3–12
- 7Volpe reached on infield single to third, Peraza scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third.3–8
- 7Bellinger singled to right, Grisham scored, Judge to second, Peraza to third.3–7
- 7Rice doubled to right, Wells scored and Goldschmidt scored, Grisham to third.3–6
- 7Grisham walked, Volpe scored, Goldschmidt to second, Wells to third.3–4
- 7Wells singled to right, Domínguez scored, Volpe to second.3–3
- 7Tatis Jr. doubled to right, Sheets scored, Díaz to third.3–2
- 4Domínguez singled to right, Bellinger scored on throwing error by right fielder Tatis Jr., Domínguez to second.2–2
- 4Judge homered to right (341 feet).2–1
- 4Heyward hit sacrifice fly to left, Merrill scored.2–0
- 4Machado scored on a balk, Sheets to second on a balk, Merrill to third on a balk.1–0
- 4Machado scored on a balk, Sheets to second on a balk, Merrill to third on a balk.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML SD +105 / NYY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +6 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +2 Elo | NYY 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 1st of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 4th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 11–818th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 15405th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–12 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–7 | 15–14 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–21 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–4 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.