San Diego Padres at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Escarra hit sacrifice fly to left, Domínguez scored.3–4
- 8Grisham homered to right (387 feet), Cabrera scored.3–3
- 8Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Machado scored.3–1
- 8Merrill singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to third.2–1
- 7Bellinger homered to right (373 feet).1–1
- 4Merrill homered to right center (417 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML SD +145 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- SD +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +13 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +35 Elo | NYY 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 12–815th of 30 |
| 10th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301546 | Elo rating | 15433rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–13 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–7 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–21 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–5 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.