Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Rowdy TellezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Straw singled to right, Barger scored and Clement scored.6–3
- 8Barger singled to right, Springer scored.4–3
- 6Barger grounded into fielder's choice to second, Springer scored, Kirk out at second.3–3
- 5Bichette homered to right center (377 feet), Straw scored.2–3
- 4Taveras hit sacrifice fly to right, Raleigh scored, Arozarena to third.0–3
- 4Arozarena doubled to left, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to third.0–2
- 2Tellez homered to left center (390 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML TOR +120 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −19 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +39 Elo | SEA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–12 | Road vs home | 12–712th of 30 |
| 6th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301485 | Elo rating | 15279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–16 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–7 SEA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.