Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Varsho hit sacrifice fly to left, Heineman scored.6–3
- 6Taveras doubled to left, Raleigh scored, Arozarena to third.5–3
- 6Arozarena singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second.5–2
- 3Polanco singled to right, Williamson scored, Crawford to third.5–1
- 3Lukes homered to right center (391 feet), Clement scored.5–0
- 3Clement singled to right, Barger scored.3–0
- 1Barger doubled to right, Bichette scored and Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML TOR +115 / SEA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 60.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +8 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +72 Elo | SEA 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 306–12 | Road vs home | 12–611th of 30 |
| 7th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 148729th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301482 | Elo rating | 15298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–16 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 8–7 SEA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.