New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-5
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Crawford singled to left, Taveras scored, Williamson to second.1–2
- 9Volpe grounded into fielder's choice to first, Reyes scored on throwing error by first baseman Moore, Volpe second.1–1
- 4Raleigh doubled to center, Rodríguez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -145 / SEA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- SEA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +9 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +16 Elo | NYY 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.0 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.0 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 12–1019th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149029th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–19 | 19–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 19–16 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 25–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 9–5 SEA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.