Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lukes singled to center, Springer scored.9–1
- 7Barger homered to right (363 feet).8–1
- 6Clase doubled to center, Clement scored and Lukes scored.7–1
- 5Springer homered to left (416 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Barger scored.5–1
- 4Clement hit sacrifice fly to left, Kirk scored, Lukes to second.2–1
- 3Moore homered to left center (403 feet).1–1
- 2Straw singled to center, Lukes scored, Clement to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML TOR +150 / SEA -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -161
- TOR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +2 | TOR: Jose Urena: team allows 1.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +81 Elo | SEA 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 12–815th of 30 |
| 5th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301487 | Elo rating | 152411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–16 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–7 SEA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.