New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting3-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Judge hit sacrifice fly to right, Cabrera scored, Peraza to third.11–5
- 9Volpe homered to center (411 feet), Bellinger scored.10–5
- 8Raleigh homered to center (420 feet), Garver scored.8–5
- 7Moore singled to right, Arozarena scored.8–3
- 7Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Goldschmidt scored.8–2
- 5Wells homered to center (409 feet), Goldschmidt scored and Bellinger scored.7–2
- 5Bellinger singled to right, Rice scored, Goldschmidt to second.4–2
- 5Goldschmidt singled to left, Judge scored, Rice to third.3–2
- 5Grisham homered to center (415 feet).2–2
- 3Polanco homered to right (364 feet).1–2
- 3Grisham homered to center (412 feet).1–1
- 1Rodríguez homered to center (433 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -150 / SEA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- SEA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −10 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 12–918th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 148829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301547 | Elo rating | 152011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–19 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–16 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–20 | 24–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 8–5 SEA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.