New York Yankees at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting4-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Judge grounded out to shortstop, Grisham scored.7–11
- 8Langeliers doubled to center, Soderstrom scored and Wilson scored.6–11
- 8Soderstrom singled to left, Kurtz scored and Pereda scored, Wilson to second.6–9
- 7Langeliers homered to center (418 feet), Rooker scored and Soderstrom scored.6–7
- 6Peraza homered to left (354 feet), Domínguez scored.6–4
- 6Cabrera hit sacrifice fly to left, Volpe scored.4–4
- 6Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Bellinger scored.3–4
- 6Judge homered to center (433 feet).2–4
- 4Judge homered to center (399 feet).1–4
- 3Rooker homered to left (363 feet), Pereda scored and Wilson scored.0–4
- 2Urías homered to right (345 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYY -160 / ATH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 60.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- ATH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.2 – 4.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +7 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +74 Elo | NYY 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 7–1229th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 148928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301547 | Elo rating | 145925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–18 | 22–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–15 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–3 ATH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.
