New York Yankees at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Goldschmidt hit a ground rule double, Rice scored, Judge to third.12–2
- 5Bleday homered to right (377 feet).11–2
- 5Goldschmidt doubled to left, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.11–1
- 5Rice homered to right (398 feet), Volpe scored, Wells scored and Cabrera scored.10–1
- 4Andujar singled to center, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to second.6–1
- 3Cabrera doubled to left, Domínguez scored.6–0
- 2Judge singled to right, Cabrera scored and Wells scored, Rice to second.5–0
- 2Vivas grounded out to shortstop, Volpe scored, Cabrera to second, Wells to third.3–0
- 2Cabrera walked, Domínguez scored, Wells to second, Volpe to third.2–0
- 2Volpe singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Domínguez to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -155 / ATH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- ATH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 6.1 – 5.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | NYY: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +69 Elo | NYY 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 8–1228th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149127th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 146224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–19 | 23–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–16 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–20 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–4 ATH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.
