San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- German MarquezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8McMahon homered to right (404 feet).3–9
- 8Machado singled to right, Wade scored.3–8
- 8Tatis Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Díaz scored.2–8
- 7Moniak doubled to right, Goodman scored.1–8
- 7Toglia hit sacrifice fly to right, McMahon scored, Goodman to third.1–7
- 3Moniak singled to right, Goodman scored.1–6
- 3Goodman tripled to left, Beck scored and McMahon scored.1–5
- 1Goodman homered to left (421 feet), Doyle scored and Beck scored.1–3
- 1Machado grounded out to shortstop, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- SD 73%
- ML SD -310 / COL +250
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- SD: Elo 70.0%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -265
- COL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −11 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +148 Elo | SD 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 67.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 6.630th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −3.430th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 4–1630th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15153rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 139930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–13 | 13–26 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–7 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 11–23 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 19–12 COL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 31.