San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak hit sacrifice fly to right, Goodman scored.13–9
- 9Goodman doubled to left, McMahon scored on error, Goodman safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Lockridge.13–8
- 8Doyle singled to right, Bouchard scored, Amador to second.13–7
- 8Bouchard singled to left, Farmer scored.13–6
- 8Farmer doubled to center, Goodman scored and McMahon scored.13–5
- 8Beck homered to right center (428 feet).13–3
- 8Cronenworth singled to right, Lockridge scored.13–2
- 6McMahon homered to right (396 feet).12–2
- 6Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Machado scored, Merrill safe at second on fielding error by catcher Goodman.12–1
- 6Merrill reached on infield single to first, Arraez scored, Machado to third.11–1
- 5Maldonado homered to left, Heyward scored.10–1
- 5Heyward singled to right, Sheets scored.8–1
- 5Sheets doubled to right, Cronenworth scored.7–1
- 5Cronenworth grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Machado scored on throwing error by second baseman Amador, Bogaerts out at second.6–1
- 4Toglia homered to right center (416 feet).5–1
- 3Sheets doubled to left, Arraez scored, Cronenworth scored and Merrill scored.5–0
- 3Merrill doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.2–0
- 1Machado singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML SD -190 / COL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- SD: Elo 67.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -170
- COL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +123 Elo | SD 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.129th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −2.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 4–1430th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15143rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301545 | Elo rating | 140430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–13 | 13–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 12–7 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 11–21 |
| Overs–unders | 14–22 | 15–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 17–12 COL in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 29.