San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Nick MartiniBatting2-3
- Bradley BlalockPitching3.2 IP, 12 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sheets doubled to center, Cronenworth scored.21–0
- 6Wade singled to right, Iglesias scored, Merrill to second.20–0
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to left center (401 feet), Heyward scored and Díaz scored.19–0
- 5Bogaerts homered to left (363 feet).16–0
- 4Machado singled to left, Arraez scored.15–0
- 4Arraez tripled to right, Díaz scored and Tatis Jr. scored.14–0
- 4Heyward homered to left (377 feet), Merrill scored and Sheets scored.12–0
- 4Cronenworth hit sacrifice fly to right, Machado scored.9–0
- 4Merrill singled to right, Arraez scored, Machado to third.8–0
- 3Cronenworth homered to right (435 feet).7–0
- 2Arraez singled to center, Díaz scored.6–0
- 1Sheets homered to right center (439 feet), Bogaerts scored.5–0
- 1Cronenworth grounded out to second, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to third.3–0
- 1Machado scored, Bogaerts to second, Merrill to third on wild pitch by Blalock.2–0
- 1Machado scored on Blalock wild pitch, Bogaerts to second on wild pitch by Blalock, Merrill to third on wild pitch by Blalock.2–0
- 1Merrill singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 69%
- ML SD -250 / COL +205
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- SD: Elo 68.8%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- SD -218
- COL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −8 | SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +138 Elo | SD 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −3.030th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 4–1530th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15153rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301546 | Elo rating | 140230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–13 | 13–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 13–7 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 11–22 |
| Overs–unders | 15–22 | 16–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 18–12 COL in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 30.