Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting3-4
- Stephen KolekPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cronenworth doubled to left, Sheets scored.5–1
- 6Raleigh homered to left center (363 feet), Rodríguez scored.5–0
- 4Tellez homered to right (408 feet), Raleigh scored.3–0
- 1Crawford homered to right (357 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 60%
- ML SEA +140 / SD -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- SD: Elo 60.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -149
- SEA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +13 | SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +76 Elo | SD 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 16–54th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15443rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–22 | 27–15 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 16–9 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–17 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–2 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.