Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ward homered to left (350 feet), Neto scored, Schanuel scored and Moncada scored.9–5
- 9Moncada walked, Adell scored, Schanuel to second, Neto to third.5–5
- 9Schanuel walked, Rengifo scored, Neto to second, Adell to third.4–5
- 8Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Merrill scored.3–5
- 6Ward grounded into fielder's choice to third, Moncada scored on throwing error by second baseman Cronenworth, Soler out at second, Ward to second.3–4
- 5Tatis Jr. homered to center (424 feet).2–4
- 3Machado scored and Merrill scored on error, Bogaerts safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Kikuchi, Bogaerts safe at second.2–3
- 3Merrill singled to right, Arraez scored, Machado to third.2–1
- 3Neto homered to left (373 feet), Tim Anderson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML LAA +165 / SD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- SD: Elo 68.8%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -177
- LAA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | 0 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +137 Elo | SD 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 66.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–13 | Road vs home | 14–43rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 28th of 301434 | Elo rating | 15454th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–25 | 25–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 14–8 |
| Underdog | 12–16 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 3–3 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.