Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Matthew LugoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. homered to left center (430 feet), Díaz scored.4–6
- 8Machado scored on Zeferjahn wild pitch, Sheets to second on wild pitch by Zeferjahn.4–4
- 8Machado scored on Zeferjahn wild pitch, Sheets to second on wild pitch by Zeferjahn.4–4
- 8Sheets singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to third.4–3
- 7Lugo homered to left center (382 feet), Adell scored.4–2
- 7Adell doubled to center, Rengifo scored.2–2
- 5Maldonado hit sacrifice bunt to third, Cronenworth scored.1–2
- 5Bogaerts scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe, Cronenworth to third on wild pitch by Soriano.1–1
- 5Bogaerts scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe, Cronenworth to third on wild pitch by Soriano.1–1
- 1Neto homered to left (354 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 66%
- ML LAA +180 / SD -215
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- SD: Elo 66.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -191
- LAA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.0 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +116 Elo | SD 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 19th of 308–13 | Road vs home | 14–54th of 30 |
| 16th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301437 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–25 | 25–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 14–9 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 23–17 | 18–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–3 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.