San Diego Padres at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Lukes singled to left, Varsho scored, Barger to second.6–7
- 11Varsho tripled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.6–6
- 11Sheets singled to center, Machado scored.6–5
- 10Clase singled to center, Lukes scored.5–5
- 10Arraez singled to center, Iglesias scored.5–4
- 9Sheets homered to center (405 feet), Merrill scored.4–4
- 4Varsho hit sacrifice fly to center, Heineman scored.2–4
- 4Bichette singled to center, Clase scored, Heineman to second.2–3
- 3Barger singled to left, Bichette scored, Varsho to third.2–2
- 3Varsho grounded into fielder's choice to first, Heineman scored, Bichette safe at second on fielding error by first baseman Sheets, Varsho second, Bichette safe at third on error.2–1
- 2Sheets homered to right (360 feet), Merrill scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML SD -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- SD: Elo 52.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +20 Elo | SD 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 15–1217th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 149422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–20 | 29–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–12 | 13–11 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 20–27 | 24–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–5 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.