Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement singled to right, Varsho scored, Santander to third.1–2
- 8Kirk singled to right, Clement scored.1–1
- 2Torkelson homered to left center (399 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML DET -145 / TOR +120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- DET: Elo 55.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −9 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +41 Elo | DET 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 12–1119th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–19 | 26–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–11 | 11–10 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–6 TOR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.