Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching7.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9B. Lowe homered to center (429 feet), J. Lowe scored.8–3
- 8Lukes homered to right center (383 feet).6–3
- 6Simpson singled to center, Caballero scored.6–2
- 5J. Lowe homered to center (408 feet).5–2
- 4Misner homered to right center (417 feet).4–2
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to left (383 feet).3–2
- 2Barger homered to right center (414 feet).3–1
- 2Jansen singled to left, Caballero scored, Walls thrown out at home.3–0
- 1B. Lowe homered to right center (399 feet), J. Lowe scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML TB +145 / TOR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -156
- TB +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +17 Elo | TOR 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–6 | Road vs home | 12–917th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–23 | 25–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 11–9 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–26 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 17–11 TOR in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.