Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting3-5
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walls walked, Jankowski scored, Jansen to second, Caminero to third.3–4
- 8Hoskins singled to left, Turang scored.3–3
- 6Morel scored on interference by third baseman Durbin, Caminero stole second.2–3
- 6Morel scored on interference by third baseman Durbin, Caminero stole second.2–3
- 4B. Lowe homered to right center (405 feet).2–2
- 4Durbin grounded out to second, Contreras scored, Frelick to second, Yelich to third.2–1
- 3Caballero singled to right, Walls scored on fielding error by center fielder Chourio, Caballero to third.1–1
- 1Contreras singled to center, Chourio scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 52.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +17 Elo | MIL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 18th of 307–12 | Road vs home | 9–1629th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 12th of 301523 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–19 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–10 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22 | 15–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–3 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.