Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bauers singled to center, Cameron scored.1–5
- 8Hoskins doubled to left, Yelich scored.1–4
- 6Walker grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Altuve scored on error, Paredes safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Myers.1–3
- 3Yelich homered to center (413 feet), Contreras scored.0–3
- 3Contreras singled to left, Ortiz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML HOU -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 51.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −5 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +13 Elo | MIL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 10–613th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301525 | Elo rating | 152312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–16 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 11–9 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–18 | 15–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–3 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.