Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Jansen singled to center, B. Lowe scored.7–6
- 10Turner singled to center, Marsh scored.7–5
- 10Marsh doubled to left, Sosa scored.6–5
- 9Kepler grounded out to third, Rojas scored, Wilson to second.5–5
- 8Stott homered to right (409 feet), Bohm scored and Marsh scored.4–5
- 7Díaz homered to right center (362 feet), Caballero scored and Walls scored.1–5
- 3Caminero hit sacrifice fly to left, Walls scored.1–2
- 1Caminero homered to right (347 feet).1–1
- 1Harper hit sacrifice fly to center, Stott scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML PHI -160 / TB +135
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +15 Elo | PHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 9–1528th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 7th of 301531 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–17 | 16–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19 | 14–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 8–0 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.