Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Phillies- Weston WilsonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kepler hit sacrifice fly to center, Stott scored.11–9
- 10Perdomo walked, Gurriel Jr. scored, Moreno to second, Thomas to third.11–8
- 10Tawa hit sacrifice fly to left, Naylor scored.10–8
- 10Naylor singled to left, Suárez scored on error, Naylor safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Schwarber.9–8
- 9Bohm singled to center, Marsh scored, Realmuto to second.8–8
- 9Schwarber homered to right center (408 feet).8–7
- 9Grichuk doubled to right, Carroll scored.8–6
- 7Realmuto singled to center, Harper scored.7–6
- 6Wilson homered to left (395 feet), Bohm scored and Sosa scored.7–5
- 4Rojas singled to right, Sosa scored.7–2
- 4Carroll singled to center, Perdomo scored.7–1
- 4Perdomo reached on infield single to third, Herrera scored.6–1
- 4Herrera doubled to right, Hampson scored and Tawa scored.5–1
- 3Carroll singled to right, Herrera scored and Perdomo scored.3–1
- 3Perdomo doubled to left, Hampson scored, Herrera to third.1–1
- 1Harper homered to left (362 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML ARI +135 / PHI -160
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- ARI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −3 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 13–55th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 10th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15288th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–17 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 18–15 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–12 PHI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.