Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gurriel Jr. homered to left (393 feet), Moreno scored.2–7
- 4Castellanos safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Suárez, Turner scored, Schwarber to second.0–7
- 3Realmuto homered to left center (397 feet), Schwarber scored and Kepler scored.0–6
- 2Marsh doubled to right, Realmuto scored, Bohm to third.0–3
- 2Kepler homered to right center (392 feet), Castellanos scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML ARI +105 / PHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −1 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +10 Elo | PHI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–7 | Road vs home | 12–55th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 152510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–16 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 18–14 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–11 PHI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.