Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting3-4, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kepler homered to right center (422 feet).2–3
- 7Schwarber homered to right center (389 feet).2–2
- 6Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Moreno scored.2–1
- 4Perdomo singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored.1–1
- 1Schwarber doubled to right, Turner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML ARI +135 / PHI -160
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- ARI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 5.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +11 Elo | PHI 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–6 | Road vs home | 11–57th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 152412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–16 | 16–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–10 PHI in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.
- Aug 11PHI 5 @ ARI 12Picked PHI 54%Miss
- Aug 10PHI 1 @ ARI 11Picked ARI 52%Hit
- Aug 9PHI 2 @ ARI 3Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Aug 8PHI 6 @ ARI 4Picked ARI 53%Miss
- Jun 23ARI 1 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 68%Hit
- Jun 22ARI 1 @ PHI 12Picked PHI 70%Hit
- Jun 21ARI 5 @ PHI 4Picked PHI 56%Miss
- Oct 24ARI 4 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss