Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4
- Shane BazPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Stott singled to left, Rojas scored.7–0
- 4Harper doubled to center, Turner scored and Stott scored.6–0
- 4Turner singled to right, Rojas scored, Stott to second.4–0
- 4Stott singled to left, Bohm scored, Rojas to third.3–0
- 4Rojas hit sacrifice bunt, Realmuto scored, Bohm to second.2–0
- 3Turner homered to left center (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML PHI -165 / TB +140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 9–1426th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 8th of 301529 | Elo rating | 149917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–17 | 16–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 14–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–0 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.