Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caminero hit sacrifice fly to right, Aranda scored, Misner to third.8–4
- 9Castellanos singled to right, Harper scored, Schwarber to second.8–3
- 8Simpson hit sacrifice fly to left, Jankowski scored.7–3
- 8Castellanos homered to right center (374 feet), Harper scored and Schwarber scored.7–2
- 8Schwarber singled to right, Turner scored, Harper to second.4–2
- 4Díaz homered to right center (357 feet), B. Lowe scored.3–2
- 2Bohm homered to right (342 feet), Castellanos scored.3–0
- 2Schwarber homered to left center (370 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / TB +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | 0 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +15 Elo | PHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 9–1327th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 150116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–17 | 16–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–13 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–18 | 13–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–0 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.