Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Brendan RodgersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rodgers homered to right (369 feet), Diaz scored and Meyers scored.3–4
- 1Bauers homered to center (416 feet), Hoskins scored.0–4
- 1Hoskins doubled to center, Contreras scored and Turang scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML HOU +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −3 | HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +22 Elo | MIL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 306–10 | Road vs home | 11–613th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 12th of 301522 | Elo rating | 152511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–17 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 12–9 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19 | 15–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–4 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.