Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Eric HaaseBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz doubled to left, Altuve scored and Paredes scored.9–1
- 9Paredes singled to right, Peña scored, Altuve to second.7–1
- 6Peña homered to left (379 feet), Meyers scored and Dezenzo scored.6–1
- 5Haase homered to center (425 feet).3–1
- 5Rodgers scored, Peña to second on passed ball by Haase.3–0
- 5Rodgers scored, Peña to second on passed ball by Haase.3–0
- 5Peña grounded into fielder's choice to third, Dezenzo scored, Rodgers third.2–0
- 2Dezenzo doubled to left, Meyers scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML HOU -135 / MIL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 3.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −13 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +5 Elo | MIL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–11 | Road vs home | 12–611th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 12th of 301521 | Elo rating | 152610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–17 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–12 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 15–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–5 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.