Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoskins singled to left, Yelich scored.4–2
- 5Durbin grounded out to second, Bauers scored, Ortiz to second.3–2
- 4Caballero hit sacrifice fly to center, Aranda scored.2–2
- 4Contreras homered to right center (378 feet).2–1
- 4Yelich homered to left (348 feet).1–1
- 1Aranda singled to left, Simpson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML MIL +120 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- TB: Elo 48.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -130
- MIL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +11 Elo | MIL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 307–14 | Road vs home | 11–1627th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 12th of 301521 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–20 | 18–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–24 | 15–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–5 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.