Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rays- Travis JankowskiBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jankowski singled to left, Misner scored.2–3
- 5Ortiz homered to right (334 feet).2–2
- 4Jankowski hit sacrifice fly to right, Misner scored, Walls to third.1–2
- 4Walls doubled to right, Aranda scored, Misner to third.1–1
- 3Chourio homered to left center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML MIL -105 / TB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- TB: Elo 47.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 4.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −10 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +18 Elo | MIL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–13 | Road vs home | 10–1628th of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 12th of 301522 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–20 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 6–13 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–23 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–4 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.