Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane BazPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Bichette scored.11–9
- 9Bichette doubled to right, Straw scored.11–8
- 9Caminero homered to left (419 feet), Morel scored, Simpson scored and B. Lowe scored.11–7
- 9Simpson singled to center, Jankowski scored, Jansen to second.7–7
- 8Varsho homered to right (424 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored.6–7
- 7Clement homered to left (365 feet).6–4
- 7Jansen homered to left (376 feet).6–3
- 6Misner scored, Walls picked off and caught stealing second.5–3
- 6Misner scored, Walls picked off and caught stealing second.5–3
- 4Varsho homered to right (361 feet).4–3
- 3Bichette homered to left center (383 feet), Heineman scored.4–2
- 3Aranda homered to right center (433 feet), B. Lowe scored.4–0
- 3B. Lowe singled to right, Jansen scored and Simpson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TB +120 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- TB +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +12 Elo | TOR 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–5 | Road vs home | 11–817th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15055th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 149123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–22 | 24–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–25 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 16–10 TOR in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 26.