Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kirk homered to right center (407 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Varsho scored.1–3
- 4Misner singled to right, Morel scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML TB +135 / TOR -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +10 Elo | TOR 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–5 | Road vs home | 11–917th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 148922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–22 | 24–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–25 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 17–10 TOR in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.