Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bichette homered to left (386 feet).5–4
- 8Báez homered to left center (408 feet).5–3
- 7Straw singled to right, Barger scored.4–3
- 6Varsho homered to left (376 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.4–2
- 5Greene doubled to right, Keith scored and Carpenter scored.4–0
- 4McKinstry homered to right (349 feet).2–0
- 2Greene homered to center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- DET: Elo 50.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +6 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 1.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +2 Elo | DET 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.0 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 12–1018th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 148822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–18 | 25–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–10 | 11–10 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–6 TOR in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.