San Diego Padres at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting2-4
- Randy VasquezPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Clement singled to left, Clase scored, Barger to third.0–14
- 8Barger doubled to right, Springer scored, Clase to third.0–13
- 8Varsho homered to center (413 feet), Lukes scored, Bichette scored and Stefanic scored.0–12
- 8Bichette singled to center, Clement scored, Lukes to second.0–8
- 7Clase doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored, Kirk to third.0–7
- 7Springer reached on infield single to third, Bichette scored on throwing error by third baseman Machado, Guerrero Jr. to second.0–5
- 7Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Clement scored, Bichette to second.0–4
- 7Bichette grounded into fielder's choice to second, Barger scored, Lukes out at second, Clement to third.0–3
- 5Lukes homered to right (373 feet), Clement scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML SD +135 / TOR -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 46.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -145
- SD +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +23 Elo | SD 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 14–1218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 7th of 301533 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–19 | 28–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–12 | 12–11 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–27 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–4 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.