San Diego Padres at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Anthony SantanderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Santander homered to right (369 feet), Kirk scored.0–3
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left (371 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML SD -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +6 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 13–1219th of 30 |
| 24th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–18 | 27–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–12 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–26 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.