Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Torkelson singled to center, Torres scored, Ibáñez thrown out at third.3–2
- 4Clement singled to left, Varsho scored, Kirk to second.2–2
- 4Kirk singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Varsho to third.2–1
- 1Torkelson doubled to center, McKinstry scored and Carpenter scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML DET +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 44.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −9 | DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +42 Elo | DET 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 13–1117th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 148822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–20 | 27–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–12 | 11–10 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 26–20 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 8–7 TOR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.