Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Kyle TuckerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tucker singled to left, Shaw scored on fielding error by left fielder Stowers, Tucker to second.2–1
- 1Norby reached on infield single to third, Ramírez scored, Lopez to second, Wagaman to third.1–1
- 1Tucker homered to right (385 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -145 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +75 Elo | CHC 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 13–1422nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Elo rating | 144927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–24 | 22–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–14 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–17 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–9 MIA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.