Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner doubled to left, Bruján scored and Hoerner scored.4–5
- 9Hoerner singled to center, Kelly scored, Bruján to third.4–3
- 7J. Sánchez singled to left, Hill scored, J. Sánchez to second.4–2
- 7Norby homered to left (400 feet).3–2
- 5Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.2–2
- 5Sanoja grounded out to second, Norby scored.2–1
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to right (397 feet).1–1
- 2Stowers homered to center (410 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 69%
- ML MIA +215 / CHC -260
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 64.3%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -228
- MIA +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +103 Elo | CHC 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 67.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 11–715th of 30 |
| 4th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15221st of 30 |
| 27th of 301446 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–23 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 13–11 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–15 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–7 CHC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.