Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Derek HillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hill homered to left center (399 feet), Simon scored.2–5
- 5Suzuki homered to left center (413 feet), Tucker scored.0–5
- 5Tucker tripled to right, Amaya scored.0–3
- 5Swanson homered to left center (400 feet), Hoerner scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 69%
- ML MIA +205 / CHC -250
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 64.2%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -218
- MIA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −16 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +101 Elo | CHC 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 68.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–12 | Road vs home | 10–716th of 30 |
| 4th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15241st of 30 |
| 27th of 301448 | Elo rating | 15337th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–22 | 20–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 12–11 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–14 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–6 CHC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.