Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rojas scored on Gibson wild pitch, Sosa to second on wild pitch by Gibson.2–6
- 8Rojas scored on Gibson wild pitch, Sosa to second on wild pitch by Gibson.2–6
- 7Thaiss walked, Taylor scored, Vargas to second, Amaya to third.2–5
- 7Amaya reached on bunt single to pitcher, Sosa scored, Taylor to second.2–4
- 7Baldwin hit sacrifice fly to left, Rojas scored, Sosa to third.2–3
- 7Hicks homered to right center (366 feet).2–2
- 2Taylor doubled to center, Baldwin scored.1–2
- 2Vaughn homered to center (403 feet).1–1
- 1J. Sánchez singled to right, Edwards scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 58%
- ML MIA -155 / CHW +130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 55.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -140
- CHW +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +39 Elo | MIA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 25th of 304–10 | Road vs home | 7–1127th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 27th of 301451 | Elo rating | 140529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–20 | 21–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | — |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders | 24–12 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–2 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.