Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben CaspariusPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez homered to left center (424 feet), J. Sánchez scored and Myers scored.7–4
- 7Taylor doubled to left, Betts scored.7–1
- 6Norby singled to left, Wagaman scored, J. Sánchez to second.6–1
- 6Kim singled to center, Pages scored on error, Conforto to second, Conforto safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Myers.6–0
- 5Ohtani homered to right center (386 feet), Kim scored.5–0
- 3Freeman homered to center (402 feet), Ohtani scored.3–0
- 1T. Hernández doubled to center, Betts scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML LAD -225 / MIA +185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -197
- MIA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −4 | LAD: Jack Dreyer: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +102 Elo | LAD 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −1.627th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 9–1022nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 1st of 301566 | Elo rating | 145327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–16 | 15–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 19–15 | 22–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–4 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.