Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting2-4
- Valente BellozoPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to right, Simon scored.10–1
- 9Outman homered to center (416 feet), Pages scored and Muncy scored.10–0
- 7Pages singled to left, Freeman scored.7–0
- 7Freeman tripled to center, Kim scored, Ohtani scored and Betts scored.6–0
- 7Betts walked, E. Hernández scored, Ohtani to second, Kim to third.3–0
- 7Kim singled to right, Outman scored, Kim to second, E. Hernández to third.2–0
- 6Freeman singled to left, Ohtani scored, Betts to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML LAD -225 / MIA +185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.0%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -197
- MIA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +12 | LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +85 Elo | LAD 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −1.627th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 10–1122nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15143rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301566 | Elo rating | 145327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–17 | 16–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–17 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 20–16 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–5 MIA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.