Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10J. Sánchez singled to center, Edwards scored, Ramírez to second, Stowers to third.4–5
- 7Ohtani doubled to right, Kim scored.4–4
- 6Myers singled to center, Norby scored.3–4
- 6Norby doubled to left, Ramírez scored.3–3
- 6Freeman homered to center (405 feet).3–2
- 6Ohtani homered to right (403 feet).2–2
- 5Hicks homered to right (380 feet), Mervis scored.1–2
- 1Freeman singled to right, Pages scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 69%
- ML LAD -250 / MIA +205
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.5%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -218
- MIA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −18 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +104 Elo | LAD 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.728th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 9–1125th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15134th of 30 |
| 1st of 301567 | Elo rating | 145227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–16 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 1–6 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–4 MIA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.