Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wagaman tripled to left, Myers scored and Fortes scored.3–1
- 7Stowers homered to right center (399 feet).1–1
- 1Vaughn homered to left (393 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML MIA -115 / CHW -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 51.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +11 Elo | MIA 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 8–1126th of 30 |
| 4th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 27th of 301448 | Elo rating | 140729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–21 | 22–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–7 | — |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders | 25–12 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–3 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.