Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nimmo homered to right center (381 feet), Azócar scored.2–6
- 8Vientos singled to center, Alonso scored.2–4
- 8Lindor homered to right center (391 feet).2–3
- 7Hoerner doubled to left, Busch scored.2–2
- 6Vientos homered to left (375 feet).1–2
- 6Crow-Armstrong homered to right (376 feet).1–1
- 2Torrens tripled to center, Marte scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML CHC +105 / NYM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +16 Elo | NYM 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 14–42nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–20 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 8–9 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 26–14 | 16–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–8 NYM in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.