New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez singled to center, Carroll scored and Marte scored, Naylor to second.5–4
- 8Naylor singled to center, Perdomo scored, Marte to second, Carroll to third.5–2
- 7Lindor homered to right center (415 feet), Alvarez scored and Taylor scored.5–1
- 4Alonso homered to left (425 feet), Soto scored.2–1
- 1Carroll homered to right center (376 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML NYM -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | NYM: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +14 Elo | ARI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 8–821st of 30 |
| 28th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15152nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–17 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–21 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 11–6 ARI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.