Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Busch homered to right center (411 feet).2–7
- 8Soto singled to center, Lindor scored.1–7
- 4Soto homered to right center (434 feet).1–6
- 4Tucker homered to right center (384 feet).1–5
- 3Acuña grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Nimmo scored on error and Alvarez scored on throwing error by shortstop Swanson, Baty out at second.0–5
- 2McNeil homered to right (369 feet).0–3
- 2Baty homered to left center (393 feet).0–2
- 1Lindor homered to right center (388 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML CHC +115 / NYM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +6 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +30 Elo | NYM 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.9 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.23rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 13–33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 149324th of 30 |
| 6th of 301537 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–19 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 24–14 | 14–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–7 NYM in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.